OBR Autumn Budget 2026 outlook: house price growth forecasts cut for 2026 and 2027

Created Oct 29, 2026 • AI-generated summary

OBR economic outlook published 29 October 2026 alongside the Autumn Budget: UK house price growth forecasts cut to 2.1% for 2026 (-0.3pp vs March) and 2.5% for 2027 (-0.5pp), citing elevated mortgage rates and stagnating wage growth. Transactions forecast 4% below March, with property transaction tax receipts of £17bn in 2026-27 (£3.2bn below March). Also warned a further 2pp income tax on rental income could push rents up and that the Your First Home scheme could marginally raise prices. Membership limited to coverage of this specific OBR forecast revision.